AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS — SkyNRG, a global leader in Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), and ICF, a consultancy specializing in aviation, released their fifth SAF Market Outlook on June 5, 2025, offering a comprehensive analysis of the SAF landscape. The report celebrates strides in SAF adoption—global production reached 1.3 billion liters in 2024, up from 0.3 billion in 2020—but warns that scaling to meet aviation’s net-zero 2050 target requires urgent policy clarity and feedstock diversification. SAF, which can reduce lifecycle emissions by up to 80% compared to fossil jet fuel, is central to decarbonizing aviation, a sector responsible for 2.5% of global CO2 emissions.
The outlook projects that SAF could account for 10% of global jet fuel demand by 2030 (approximately 44 billion liters), a 10-fold increase from 2024, provided production barriers are overcome. Key drivers include regulatory mandates like the EU’s ReFuelEU (6% SAF by 2030) and U.S. SAF Grand Challenge (11 billion liters by 2030). However, the report identifies gaps: SAF’s high cost (2-4 times fossil jet fuel), feedstock constraints, and inconsistent global policies hinder progress. In 2024, SAF comprised just 0.3% of jet fuel supply, underscoring the scale of the challenge.
“SAF is no longer a concept—it’s a reality, but scaling it demands bold policy and innovation,” said Theye Veen, Chief Commercial Officer at SkyNRG. “Our outlook shows what’s possible if we align incentives and diversify feedstocks.” The report advocates for policies like the EU’s €6/L e-fuel subsidies and U.S. tax credits to be harmonized globally, alongside investment in advanced feedstocks like municipal solid waste and cover crops.
“SAF is no longer a concept—it’s a reality, but scaling it demands bold policy and innovation,” said Theye Veen, Chief Commercial Officer at SkyNRG.
The report details technological and supply chain advancements. Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA) remains the dominant SAF pathway, but Alcohol-to-Jet (ATJ) and Power-to-Liquid (PtL) e-fuels are gaining traction, with PtL projected to supply 15-20% of SAF by 2035, per IATA. Feedstock diversification is critical, as reliance on used cooking oil and vegetable oils faces sustainability and supply limits. Emerging sources, such as lignocellulosic biomass and biogenic CO2, could unlock 50% more feedstock by 2030, per SkyNRG estimates, reducing competition with food and biodiesel markets.
For stakeholders, the outlook offers strategic guidance. Airlines should secure long-term offtake agreements, as Delta and bp have done, to stabilize supply and costs. Producers must invest in modular plants, like Neste’s Rotterdam facility, to scale efficiently. Investors can target high-growth areas like e-fuels, with $120-180 billion needed for production capacity by 2030, per BloombergNEF. Policymakers should prioritize global standards, aligning with ICAO’s CORSIA to avoid market fragmentation, and extend subsidies to cover 20% of SAF costs, as suggested by the report.
Challenges include financing and regulatory alignment. SAF projects require upfront capital, with 70% of announced facilities still pre-FID (Final Investment Decision), per ICF data. Policy inconsistencies, such as the U.S.’s debate over SAF certification, risk delaying progress. The report also notes equity concerns, urging support for smaller airlines and regions to ensure broad adoption.
SkyNRG and ICF’s outlook positions SAF as aviation’s most viable decarbonization lever but calls for coordinated action. As global SAF demand grows, the next five years will be pivotal for building the infrastructure and policies to make SAF a mainstream fuel.
Source: SkyNRG, “SkyNRG and ICF Release Fifth SAF Market Outlook 2025,” June 5, 2025.
