LONDON, UNITED KINGDOM — The global Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) market is poised for exponential growth, with a new report from The Research Insights forecasting a rise from $658.18 million in 2023 to $15.85 billion by 2030, at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 57.5%. Released on June 17, 2025, the report highlights regulatory mandates, technological innovation, and airline decarbonization pledges as key drivers, positioning SAF as a cornerstone for reducing aviation’s 2.5% share of global CO2 emissions.
SAF, produced from feedstocks like used cooking oil, agricultural residues, and synthetic e-fuels, can cut lifecycle emissions by up to 80% compared to conventional jet fuel. Despite its promise, SAF accounted for just 0.3% of global jet fuel supply in 2024, with production at 1.3 billion liters. The projected market surge reflects a shift from niche to mainstream, driven by policies like the EU’s ReFuelEU mandate (6% SAF by 2030) and the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act’s SAF tax credits. The report notes that airlines, facing pressure from regulators and passengers, are increasingly integrating SAF into fuel portfolios, with over 50 carriers committing to 10% SAF blends by 2030.
“The SAF market’s growth trajectory reflects a confluence of policy, technology, and market demand,” said Dr. Priya Sharma, lead analyst at The Research Insights. “However, scaling production to meet this demand will require significant investment in feedstock supply chains and next-generation technologies.”
The report identifies several growth enablers. Technological advancements in Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA), Alcohol-to-Jet (ATJ), and Power-to-Liquid (PtL) pathways are improving yield and cost-efficiency. For instance, HEFA-based SAF, dominant in 2024, is projected to remain cost-competitive, while PtL e-fuels, leveraging green hydrogen, could capture 20% of the market by 2030, per IATA estimates. Feedstock diversification, including municipal solid waste and cover crops, is also reducing reliance on constrained resources like vegetable oils.
“The SAF market’s growth trajectory reflects a confluence of policy, technology, and market demand,” said Dr. Priya Sharma, lead analyst at The Research Insights.
Challenges persist, however. SAF’s cost, 2-4 times higher than fossil jet fuel, remains a barrier, with airlines allocating only 1-3% of budgets to SAF, according to a Boston Consulting Group study. Feedstock availability is another bottleneck, with global demand for bio-based SAF projected to strain agricultural and waste streams by 2035. The report emphasizes the need for $100-150 billion in capital investment by 2030 to scale production capacity, alongside policies like subsidies (e.g., EU’s €6/L e-fuel support) to bridge the price gap.
For stakeholders, the forecast offers strategic insights. Airlines must secure long-term SAF offtake agreements to mitigate price volatility, with models like bp’s deals with United Airlines as a blueprint. Producers should prioritize modular, scalable plants, as seen in Neste’s Singapore expansion. Investors can target high-growth segments like e-fuels, with companies like INERATEC raising €120 million in 2025. Policymakers, meanwhile, should harmonize global standards, aligning EU and U.S. incentives with ICAO’s CORSIA framework to avoid market fragmentation.
The $15.85 billion projection signals confidence in SAF’s scalability but underscores the urgency of coordinated action. As aviation aims for net-zero by 2050, the next five years will be critical for building the infrastructure and supply chains to make SAF a viable, mainstream fuel.
Source: PR Newswire, “Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market to Reach $15.85 Billion by 2030, Growing at a CAGR of 57.5%,” June 17, 2025.
