SASKATOON, CANADA — The aviation industry’s pursuit of net-zero emissions through Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAFs) is under scrutiny in a comprehensive report from the National Farmers Union (NFU), penned by researcher Darrin Qualman in November 2024. For an industry anticipating a surge to 22 trillion passenger-kilometres annually by 2050—supported by 40,000 new aircraft from Boeing and Airbus—the reliance on SAFs to replace fossil fuels is both ambitious and fraught with unintended consequences.
The report categorizes SAFs into four types: Bio-SAFs from seeds (e.g., canola, soybeans), residues (e.g., straw), energy crops (e.g., switchgrass), and Electro-SAFs (from renewable energy). While Electro-SAFs offer a land-free alternative, their scalability remains speculative due to high costs and energy demands. This leaves bio-based SAFs, sourced from farmland, as the backbone of aviation’s decarbonization strategy—a shift from oil fields to farm fields that Qualman warns could destabilize global food systems.
“SAF may come to stand for ‘Sacrificing Affordable Food.’ The SAF project will put the food-purchasing dollars of Earth’s poorest billion people into competition with the vacation dollars of the richest billion.” — Darrin Qualman
A striking thought experiment in the report underscores the scale: meeting 2050’s projected two-thirds of a trillion litres of SAF demand solely from oilseeds would require 2 billion acres—20 times Canada’s cropland. Though not the actual plan, this illustrates the immense pressure SAF production could place on agricultural land. Even a fraction of this demand, supplemented by residues and energy crops, risks driving food prices upward, particularly as global population grows by two billion. The NFU suggests SAF might cynically stand for “Sacrificing Affordable Food,” pitting the food needs of the poorest billion against the travel desires of the richest.
Land use change is another red flag. Converting forests or wilderness for SAF feedstocks could release significant greenhouse gases (GHGs), undermining the fuels’ low-emission claims. The report questions the reliability of life cycle analyses (LCAs) that downplay these impacts, especially given humanity’s already extensive appropriation of global biomass. Moreover, harvesting residues like straw could reverse soil carbon sequestration, while energy crops compete with food production, amplifying land-use tensions.
The NFU also highlights competition for resources beyond land. SAF production could demand half of today’s global electricity output by 2050, stalling decarbonization in sectors like transportation and heating. Green hydrogen needs—projected at 100 million tonnes annually by 2045—further strain clean energy supplies, potentially shifting emissions rather than cutting them. This “policy incoherence,” as Qualman terms it, sees SAFs solving aviation’s emissions problem while creating larger ones elsewhere.
Justice concerns loom large. Subsidies for SAFs, potentially totaling trillions over decades, divert public funds from pressing needs like healthcare to lower flight costs—a questionable priority amid widespread economic hardship. Production in food-insecure regions like Africa raises ethical questions about exploiting vulnerable lands for affluent travelers’ jets.
Ultimately, the report challenges SAFs’ feasibility within planetary boundaries. With demands for food, bioenergy, and carbon sequestration already stretching ecosystems, adding SAFs to the mix may be unsustainable. The NFU advocates alternatives: electrified trains for medium-haul travel, demand management to curb flight growth, and a leap to Electro-SAFs if scalable. As aviation’s “dark ages” of sustainability persist, the report urges a holistic rethink to avoid a polycrisis of food, and climate.
The report can be found here:
Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF): A Critical Analysis, with a Focus on Agriculture, Land, and Food
A Report by the National Farmers Union, Written by Darrin Qualman, November 2024
