ST. PAUL, MINNESOTA — Minnesota is poised to supercharge its SAF industry with S.F. 1312 (Rest), a bill proposing to expand the Sustainable Aviation Fuel Credit to $39 million through 2035, including a $10 million increase for 2026–2029 championed by Clean Energy Economy MN (CEEM). Offering $1.50 per gallon for a 50/50 blend, it aims to unlock 15 million gallons of annual SAF capacity. For an audience tracking SAF’s business and policy currents, this piece dissects Minnesota’s proposed fiscal strategy, regional feedstock advantage, and potential economic impacts—pending legislative approval.
Policy Push: Credits Meet Feedstock Might
The Department of Revenue’s February 26, 2025, analysis projects S.F. 1312’s jump from $11.6 million to $39 million—a $27.4 million fiscal hit from 2027 to 2035 if passed. It targets a 30-million-gallon blending facility (15 million SAF) with a $22.5 million annual credit cap. CEEM’s February 27 letter to the Senate Tax Committee backs the $10 million boost for 2026–2029, arguing it “will solidify Minnesota’s position as a leader” in SAF. Unallocated 2025–2026 credits would carry forward, exhausting in 2027 as demand rises.
The proposal aligns with an airline using 250 million gallons yearly, eyeing 10% SAF by 2027 (25 million gallons) and 50% by 2035 (125 million), starting at 5% in 2026 (12.5 million). Minnesota’s feedstock—corn, soybeans, ag/forestry residues—bolsters its rank as the seventh-largest U.S. biofuel producer. Unlike federal RFS incentives, this state-level play hinges on local assets, aiming to outpace Midwest rivals if enacted.
Business Boom: Airlines and Producers Eye Gains
The $1.50 credit could cut SAF’s $2–$3/gallon premium, a lifeline for airlines like Delta at Minneapolis-St. Paul. By 2027, a 25-million-gallon SAF goal could tap $18.75 million (5% of 250 million), hitting the $22.5 million cap by 2030. Producers see a $100 million-plus blending plant de-risked, with CEEM touting “expanded economic opportunities” in a biofuel powerhouse. The carry-forward cushions early movers, though the $39 million cap limits scale—125 million gallons by 2035 needs more muscle.
Minnesota’s logistics amplify the stakes. Delta’s hub, paired with feedstock proximity, could make it a SAF nexus. CEEM notes “strong market demand” and “ongoing R&D,” hinting producers like Neste might pounce if the bill passes. The $10 million infusion signals ambition, but the “unknown” taxpayer count flags adoption risks.
“The $10 million SAF Credit boost will solidify Minnesota’s leadership in clean fuels—if it passes.” — George Damian, CEEM
Minnesota’s Play: A Regional SAF Catalyst
If approved, S.F. 1312 could make Minnesota an Upper Midwest SAF trailblazer, outstripping neighbors with aviation-specific incentives. CEEM’s 70+ member firms—from startups to Fortune 100s—push a 100% clean energy future, backing this $27.4 million bet peaking in 2030. It’s a modest general fund dip for a shot at SAF’s $16 billion global pie by 2030. Success hinges on the Senate floor vote and beyond—hitting capacity by 2027 could draw SAF giants, leveraging tax certainty amid federal flux.
The 2035 sunset and feedstock logistics loom as hurdles, but with CEEM’s support and a $39 million proposal, Minnesota’s SAF hub dreams are aloft—pending enactment.
