Methanol Institute Report Positions Methanol-to-Jet as Critical Bridge in Post-2030 SAF Supply Gap

New analysis argues methanol-to-jet is uniquely positioned to scale rapidly once HEFA feedstocks hit their ceiling — and to help meet the EU's eSAF sub-mandate

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SAFpath News Desk

February 14, 2026

Summary: A new Methanol Institute report makes the case that the methanol-to-jet pathway is one of the few SAF production routes capable of rapid, large-scale deployment using widely available feedstocks — positioning it as a strategic bridge between today's biofuel-based SAF and tomorrow's electrofuel market.

The Methanol Institute has published a report identifying the Methanol-to-Jet (MTJ) pathway as a critical accelerator for the next wave of SAF production, arguing it is particularly well suited to filling the supply gap expected to widen after 2030 as HEFA capacity reaches its limits.

The Core Argument

MTJ’s central advantage is flexibility. Methanol can be produced from natural gas, biomass, or green hydrogen combined with CO₂ — meaning the feedstock base is not geographically constrained in the way HEFA inputs are. That makes MTJ one of the few SAF pathways capable of genuinely large-scale deployment without running into the feedstock ceiling analysts widely expect HEFA to hit by the early 2030s.

The pathway also benefits from compatibility with existing Fischer-Tropsch and syngas infrastructure, lowering capital requirements compared to entirely new-build facilities.

Key Findings

MTJ SAF can achieve 80–95% lifecycle GHG reductions when produced from green methanol
The EU’s ReFuelEU regulation and the US 45Z tax credit are creating favourable economics for MTJ producers now
The EU’s eSAF sub-mandate — requiring 35% electrofuel content by 2050 — can be partially met through e-methanol-to-jet routes
Companies already commercialising MTJ include Metafuels, which raised $24 million in February 2026, and Carbon Engineering

The Post-2030 Strategic Window

HEFA is expected to remain the dominant SAF pathway through the late 2020s, but its feedstock base is finite. As HEFA capacity fills up and SAF mandates ratchet higher, new pathways must be ready at scale. The report argues MTJ is uniquely positioned for that window — mature enough to commercialise now, scalable enough to matter later.

The dual-use nature of e-methanol is also highlighted as strategically significant: the same green methanol supply chains being developed for maritime shipping can feed MTJ production, allowing the two sectors to share infrastructure and reduce costs.

Policy Implications

The Methanol Institute’s advocacy for MTJ’s inclusion in SAF policy frameworks globally reflects a broader push to diversify the certified SAF pathway mix. Establishing MTJ within frameworks like the US 45Z credit is a prerequisite for the capital investment needed to bring facilities to commercial scale.

Source: https://www.methanol.org/sustainable-aviation-fuel/

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