
Brussels – The European aviation industry is grappling with escalating pressures from climate-focused organizations and mounting legal scrutiny as questions arise about its long-term growth trajectory. Transport & Environment’s latest report, Down to Earth: Why European Aviation Needs to Urgently Address Its Growth Problem, calls for significant policy interventions to mitigate the environmental impact of aviation and challenges the reliance on passenger growth to sustain the sector.
Compounding the criticism, legal professionals anticipate a surge in litigation targeting airlines over their sustainability claims. Elaina Bailes, a partner at Stewarts law firm, notes that lawsuits and regulatory enforcement have become an increasing risk for the sector. “It seems inevitable that the aviation sector will increasingly face […] litigation risks – these trends have started over the last few years and seem set to increase,” Bailes told ICLG News. She highlighted that even initiatives like promoting sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) could expose airlines to accusations of greenwashing.
Growth Projections and Climate Concerns
Passenger traffic from European Union (EU) airports is forecasted to double by 2050, with fuel consumption expected to increase by 59% compared to 2019. These projections starkly contrast with the EU’s climate commitments. Transport & Environment (T&E) warns that aviation’s carbon budget for maintaining global warming below 1.5°C will be exhausted by 2026.
While the European Commission’s traffic models anticipate slower growth compared to industry forecasts from Airbus and Boeing, the report underscores that the pace of emissions reductions is insufficient to counterbalance aviation’s growth.
“Aviation’s carbon budget for staying within the 1.5°C threshold will be exhausted by 2026.” – Down to Earth Report
SAF’s Role and Limitations
Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is seen as a cornerstone of aviation’s decarbonization efforts, but T&E’s report raises doubts about its scalability and environmental impact. By 2050, as much as 80% of SAF could be derived from unsustainable feedstocks, according to the report. Moreover, producing sufficient e-kerosene to meet demand would require 585 TWh of renewable energy annually—equivalent to Germany’s total electricity consumption in 2023.
“Despite its promise, SAF cannot address emissions at the scale required if air traffic continues to grow unchecked,” the report cautions.
Adding to the challenges, legal and regulatory scrutiny over sustainability claims may deter airlines from fully promoting SAF initiatives. The Advertising Standards Authority and similar bodies are closely monitoring how sustainability is marketed, creating reputational risks for airlines that fail to substantiate their claims.
Policy Gaps and Subsidies
The report also critiques subsidies and policies that favor aviation over lower-carbon alternatives like rail. Jet fuel tax exemptions and airport expansions are highlighted as counterproductive measures that undermine climate goals.
Without significant interventions, T&E projects that emissions could increase by as much as 64% compared to 1990 levels by 2040.
Legal Risks on the Horizon
The aviation industry is not only under pressure from environmental advocates but also from legal challenges. Bailes notes that airlines could face lawsuits targeting their advertising and sustainability claims. Ironically, these claims often focus on efforts to promote SAF—measures designed to enhance the industry’s climate credentials.
“The aviation sector will increasingly face litigation risks,” Bailes said. “Regulators such as the Advertising Standards Authority have been very active in this area too, adding to potential reputational risk.”