The Launch of DOE’s SAF Liftoff Report
At COP29, the U.S. Department of Energy unveiled its comprehensive report, Pathways to Commercial Liftoff: Sustainable Aviation Fuel, focusing on how the U.S. can accelerate the production and adoption of SAF. With aviation accounting for 3.3% of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions and jet fuel consumption projected to rise annually by 2-3% through 2050, the report emphasizes the urgency of deploying SAF as the near-term solution to decarbonize aviation.
SAF’s drop-in capability allows it to replace conventional jet fuel without requiring changes to existing infrastructure. However, to meet ambitious climate and energy goals, significant investment and collaboration across sectors are required.
Meeting the Grand Challenge Goals
The SAF Grand Challenge, launched in 2021, set production targets of three billion gallons annually by 2030 and 35 billion gallons by 2050. Achieving these milestones would fulfill 10% and 100% of projected U.S. jet fuel demand, respectively. According to the DOE report, announced domestic SAF projects already represent over three billion gallons of annual production capacity by 2030, backed by $44 billion in investment and creating over 70,000 jobs.
“SAF represents the only viable solution to meaningfully decarbonize our aviation sector in the near-term.”
However, realizing these targets will depend on three imperatives:
1. Scaling Supply: Deploying 8-12 commercial-scale SAF production facilities with a combined capacity of 800-1,200 million gallons per year (MGPY) by 2030.
2. Stimulating Demand: Establishing normalized 10+ year offtake agreements with airlines to provide demand certainty.
3. Shoring Up Policy: Building a robust policy framework that supports both supply and demand while incentivizing innovation.
Challenges Identified in the Report
While the momentum for SAF production is growing, the DOE report outlines several challenges:
• Feedstock Competition: Many SAF pathways rely on feedstocks like animal fats and cooking oil, which are also used in renewable diesel, creating cost pressures.
• Infrastructure Gaps: Limited SAF blending and distribution infrastructure impedes scalability.
• Cost Premium: SAF currently costs 2-10 times more than fossil jet fuel, making widespread adoption difficult without subsidies or incentives.
• Policy Shortfalls: While tax credits under the Inflation Reduction Act and other programs help lower costs, these policies are often short-term and lack the certainty needed for long-term investments.
Proposed Solutions
1. Scaling Existing Technologies: Focus on deploying mature SAF production technologies like Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA) and Alcohol-to-Jet (AtJ) pathways by 2030 while investing in next-generation technologies to address future feedstock constraints.
2. Activating Corporate Demand: Broaden acceptance of book-and-claim systems and SAF certificates (SAFc) to unlock third-party corporate demand, enabling airlines to reduce costs through innovative financing structures.
3. Building U.S.-Based Supply Chains: The report warns against relying on imported feedstocks, advocating for domestic production to achieve energy independence, support agriculture, and drive job creation.
4. Aligning Policy: Introduce contracts-for-difference programs and advanced market commitments to reduce price volatility and encourage investment.
Implications for the Industry
The DOE report highlights SAF as a transformative opportunity for U.S. aviation and energy sectors. By aligning stakeholders across the supply chain, SAF can drive economic growth while addressing climate goals. The report’s focus on long-term policy support, infrastructure development, and innovation provides a clear framework for achieving the 2030 and 2050 SAF targets.
With sustained collaboration, SAF could move from a niche product to the cornerstone of sustainable aviation, securing U.S. leadership in the global clean energy transition.
The report may be downloaded here:
