NEW DELHI, INDIA — India’s SAF industry is poised to turn its 3.2 million metric tons of annual used cooking oil (UCO) into a $3 billion export opportunity by 2030, according to Capgemini’s Out of the Frying Pan, Into the Sky report. With a domestic blending mandate rising from 1% in 2027 to 2% in 2028, and feedstock capacity for 19–24 million tons of SAF yearly—exceeding the 8–10 million tons needed for a 50% blend—India could shift from importer to exporter. For an audience tracking SAF’s business and policy currents, this piece dives into India’s unique drivers: a growing UCO supply, a proactive government, and aerospace’s critical role.
“India’s 9–14 million-ton SAF surplus could redefine global supply—if aerospace steps up.” — Adapted from Capgemini analysis
Policy Backbone: Mandates and Digital Traceability
India’s SAF strategy rests on ambitious targets and regulatory innovation. The government’s 1% SAF blending goal by 2027, doubling to 2% by 2028, is dwarfed by a 2030 feedstock projection of 19–24 million tons. This surplus—9–14 million tons beyond domestic needs—could dominate the global UCO-to-SAF market, projected to hit $734 million by 2030 at a 63% CAGR. The National Policy on Biofuels 2018 and SATAT scheme bolster this, prioritizing biofuels in transport with tax breaks and lower passenger fees for SAF flights.
The FSSAI’s Repurpose Used Cooking Oil (RUCO) initiative, paired with a web portal run by FSSAI and the Biodiesel Association of India, stands out. This digital tool traces UCO from eateries to refineries, aiding oil marketers like BPCL. Unlike Europe’s RED or the US’s RFS, India’s model blends centralized oversight with local execution, vital in a market where only 10% of UCO feeds biodiesel. Scaling to SAF requires aligning FSSAI’s “Triple E” strategy (education, enforcement, ecosystem) with aviation incentives—a gap aerospace could fill.
Business Opportunity: UCO’s Untapped Scale
India’s UCO supply—3.2 million tons in 2022, rising 3.3% yearly to 4.1 million by 2028—reflects its status as the world’s second-largest cooking oil consumer (22 million tons in 2022). Urbanization and quick-service restaurants fuel this, yet 90% of UCO is wasted or reused unsafely. At a HEFA kerosene yield of 15–50%, converting all 4.1 million tons by 2028 could yield $922 million to $3.1 billion at $1.5/L—outpacing China’s constrained UCO exports.
Aerospace players like Airbus, with CSIR-IIP, and BPCL, investing Rs 1,400 crore, signal momentum. GPS Renewables’ 20–30 million-liter SAF facility with SAF One adds private heft. Yet, collection inefficiencies—lacking structure and awareness—limit scale. IoT bins, mobile apps, and automation could industrialize this, but aerospace must drive demand and infrastructure to hit export volumes, capitalizing on India’s cost advantage.
India’s Edge: Aerospace as Market Maker
Aerospace firms can shape India’s SAF ecosystem with regulatory expertise (ICAO, ASTM) and engineering to boost HEFA’s 15–50% kerosene yield. Unlike Neste’s 200,000-ton output or World Energy’s 250 million gallons, India needs aerospace to anchor a supply chain dominated by local vendors. Collaboration with FSSAI and state FDAs could formalize collection, while transparent tech ensures compliance—a niche Capgemini and Airbus are targeting.
The export potential is key. With global SAF demand outstripping supply, India’s surplus could rival hubs like SATORP, especially if aerospace secures ISCC+ certification. Only 10% UCO utilization flags logistical hurdles, but the reward is a stake in a $16.8 billion market by 2030.
