SEATTLE, WASHINGTON — The aviation industry, responsible for approximately 2–3% of global CO2 emissions, faces intense pressure to decarbonize amid projected growth to over 8 billion passengers by 2050. Boeing’s Cascade Climate Impact Model, first launched publicly in May 2023 and updated in 2025, emerges as a pivotal tool to navigate this challenge. Designed to provide clarity in a complex landscape of sustainability options, Cascade empowers stakeholders to make informed decisions through data-driven scenario modeling.

What Is Cascade?

Cascade is a web-based platform that quantifies the environmental impact of aviation’s decarbonization strategies. Unlike traditional models, it adopts a “well-to-wake” approach, assessing emissions across the entire lifecycle—from fuel production to combustion. The model evaluates five core areas:

• Traffic: Forecasting passenger and freight growth.

• Aircraft: Assessing fleet renewal and new propulsion technologies.

• Operations: Optimizing flight paths and air traffic management.

• Energy: Modeling the shift to Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF), hydrogen, and electricity.

• Offsets & Removals: Incorporating carbon capture and offsetting mechanisms.

Neil Titchener, Cascade Program Leader, emphasizes its role as a “conversation starter” for tough choices: “Cascade helps airline operators, industry partners, and policymakers see when, where, and how different fuel sources affect their sustainability goals.”

Key Features and Capabilities

Cascade’s strength lies in its flexibility and accessibility. Users can:

• Customize Scenarios: Adjust sliders to modify ambition levels for SAF adoption, hydrogen integration, or electric aircraft deployment. For instance, users can explore SAF production from biogenic feedstocks (e.g., fats, oils, greases, or waste) or power-to-liquid (PtL) eFuels.

• Analyze Feedstocks: The model details SAF feedstock categories, projecting consumption through 2050. In one scenario, SAF could account for two-thirds of aviation energy by 2050, requiring 110 billion gallons (416 billion liters) annually.

• Assess Infrastructure Needs: Cascade quantifies energy demands, such as the 2.77 trillion kWh of renewable electricity needed for PtL SAF production in 2050—equivalent to 33% of 2023’s global renewable energy output.

• Visualize Data: Interactive charts display emissions intensity, fuel consumption, and fleet composition, with options to filter by region or aircraft type (e.g., regional, single-aisle, widebody).

• Export and Share: Users can save scenarios, export data to CSV files, and share links to collaborate with stakeholders.

The 2025 update enhances usability with a “Getting Started” guide, improved onboarding, and insights into complex topics like historical emissions and renewable energy transitions.

Practical Applications

Cascade’s real-world utility is evident in its ability to inform strategic decisions:

• Airlines can evaluate the cost and emissions trade-offs of scaling SAF blends (currently limited to 50% with conventional jet fuel) versus investing in hydrogen-powered fleets.

• Policymakers can use Cascade to craft incentives, such as supporting book-and-claim systems for SAF, which allow airlines to claim carbon credits without physically transporting fuel.

• Energy Providers gain insights into feedstock availability and electricity demands for PtL fuels, addressing bottlenecks in renewable energy infrastructure.

For example, Dr. James Hileman, Boeing’s Chief Engineer for Sustainability, highlights feedstock challenges: “The challenges with these different feedstocks are how much lifecycle CO2 emissions do they produce, how much do they cost, and who else is competing for them?” Cascade’s forthcoming feature to customize feedstock visualizations will further refine these analyses.

SAF: The Cornerstone of Decarbonization

Cascade underscores SAF as the most immediate lever for emissions reduction, given its compatibility with existing aircraft and infrastructure. SAF can reduce lifecycle emissions by up to 80% compared to conventional jet fuel, depending on feedstocks and production pathways. However, scaling SAF from its current 0.3% of global jet fuel consumption (1.3 billion liters in 2024) to meet the International Civil Aviation Organization’s (ICAO) 5% target by 2030 requires overcoming significant hurdles:

• Feedstock Constraints: Competition with food production and other industries limits biogenic feedstock availability.

• Cost Barriers: SAF remains 2–5 times more expensive than fossil jet fuel, necessitating policy support and investment.

• Infrastructure Gaps: Producing PtL SAF demands massive renewable electricity, posing challenges for energy grids.

Cascade’s SAF model calculates lifecycle carbon intensity for various feedstocks, helping stakeholders prioritize low-carbon options like waste-based fuels over oilseed crops.

Beyond SAF: Hydrogen and Electricity

While SAF dominates near-term strategies, Cascade also explores hydrogen and electric propulsion. Hydrogen-powered aircraft, using liquid hydrogen at -253°C, face significant energy demands for storage and liquefaction—potentially requiring the equivalent of multiple nuclear reactors at major airports. Electric aircraft, suited for regional routes with 20–100 seats, are limited by battery weight and grid cleanliness. Cascade’s scenarios suggest these technologies will play a smaller role through 2050 due to development timelines and infrastructure needs.

“Cascade helps airline operators, industry partners, and policymakers see when, where, and how different fuel sources affect their sustainability goals.” — Neil Titchener, Cascade Program Leader

Why Cascade Matters

Boeing’s Chief Sustainability Officer, Chris Raymond, notes, “Cascade helps our industry visualize the real impact of each solution.” By providing a transparent, data-driven framework, Cascade bridges gaps between aviation, energy, and policy sectors. Its collaboration with organizations like NASA, IATA, and the University of Cambridge ensures robust feedback and continuous improvement.

For SAF experts, Cascade offers a granular lens to assess production pathways and their scalability. Its ability to model regional differences—such as Brazil’s potential to produce 9 billion liters of SAF annually from waste—makes it a valuable tool for localized strategies.

Getting Started with Cascade

To explore Cascade, visit cascade.boeing.com. New users can:

1. Access the “Getting Started” guide to understand core functionalities.

2. Experiment with pre-set scenarios or create custom models.

3. Join the Cascade User Community to provide feedback and access new features.

As aviation navigates its path to net-zero, Cascade stands out as a critical resource, translating complex data into actionable strategies for a sustainable future.

Source

• Boeing Cascade Climate Impact Model, cascade.boeing.com, accessed June 20, 2025.

• Boeing Sustainability Reports, boeing.com, accessed June 20, 2025.

• Industry publications and technical documentation, including docs.cascade.boeing.com and aviacionline.com.