- Introduction: Sustainable Aviation Fuels: A 30,000 Foot Perspective
- 1: Overview of the Current Aviation Landscape
- 2: Advancements in Aircraft Technology and Operations
- 3: The Role of Sustainable Aviation Fuels
- 4: Developing Electricity Grids
- 5: Regulatory and Policy Frameworks
- 6: Addressing Economic Challenges in SAF Adoption
- 7: Concluding Remarks
- 8: Appendices
- 9: Abbreviations
- 10: Bibliography
SAF PATH PROMOTION
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Despite a reduction in the price ratio between SAFs and conventional jet fuel from 2020 to 2022, SAF production remains much lower. Meeting the goal of replacing 10% of global jet fuel with SAFs by 2030 requires a 150-fold increase in production from 2022 levels. The scale of expansion needed is immense, as shown by the current capacity of facilities like Neste’s in Singapore. To meet projected 2050 jet fuel demand, around 2400 typical-sized SAF facilities would be required, highlighting the substantial growth needed in the SAF industry.
Despite a reduction in this ratio from 2020 to 2022, the overall production of SAF remains significantly lower than that of conventional jet fuel. This demonstrates the critical need for increased SAF production to meet the sustainability goals of the aviation sector.
Table: Conventional Jet Fuel to SAF Production Ratio
“achieving this 10% target would necessitate a 150-fold increase in current production levels. “
Further insight is provided by the SAF Facility List table, based on data from the ICAO tracker. It’s important to note, however, that many of these facilities also produce other biofuels. The ICAO tracker data does not specifically differentiate the portion of production dedicated to SAFs. Therefore, the actual SAF output is likely only a fraction of the total production reported, and this situation also points to potential competition for resources and equipment between SAF and other biofuel production within the same facilities.
Table: SAF Facility List
To understand the scale of growth required in SAF production, consider this scenario: if the goal is to replace 10% of global jet fuel consumption with SAFs by 2030, assuming a demand of 360 million metric tons, this would require the production of 36 million metric tons of SAF. With an estimated production of 240,000 metric tons in 2022, achieving this 10% target would necessitate a 150-fold increase in current production levels [70].
For perspective, the Neste facility in Singapore, which is the world’s largest biofuel producer as of the latest reports, has a capacity of 858.56 million gallons annually [71]. This translates to approximately 2.6 million metric tons, with 1 million metric tons allocated for SAF production. To meet the projected 2050 jet fuel demand of 550 million metric tons, as estimated from US EIA data, around 550 facilities of Neste’s scale would be required. However, typical SAF facilities have a smaller output, averaging about 150 thousand metric tons. This means that approximately 2400 facilities of this average size would be needed to meet the 2050 demand. This highlights the significant expansion required for the SAF industry to make a substantial contribution to the aviation fuel supply.