The chart “Comparative Price Trends of SAF and Conventional Jet Fuel (2020-2022)” vividly illustrates this disparity. Since the introduction of SAFs, they have been consistently 2-4 times more expensive than conventional jet fuel. Considering that fuel accounts for about 25% of an airline’s operating costs, as reported by McKinsey and Company [69], the impact of this price difference is considerable. This is particularly noteworthy given that airlines typically operate on relatively slim profit margins. Integrating SAFs into the aviation fuel mix at these higher prices could therefore impose a substantial financial burden on an industry already facing significant operating costs.

Table: Comparative Price Trends of SAF and Conventional Jet Fuel (2020-2022)

On the production side, the SAF industry is still developing. The current leading technology, HEFA, depends on a supply of used oils that are both in high demand and costly, leading to limited SAF availability and higher prices. However, the industry’s prospects are improving with the introduction of new production methods. These are expected to diversify potential feedstocks and increase production capacity. As these emerging technologies are adopted and production is scaled up, the industry might benefit from economies of scale, which could lower costs and make SAFs more economically viable for widespread use.

The chart “SAF to Conventional Jet Fuel Price Ratio” shows that while both SAF and conventional jet fuel prices have risen, the cost gap between them is narrowing. This is a positive sign, indicating a move towards a more economically sustainable landscape for SAFs. With the evolution and scaling of production methods, further reductions in this cost ratio can be anticipated, enhancing the economic feasibility of SAFs.

Table: SAF to Conventional Jet Fuel Price Ratio