Projections and Requirements for SAF Feedstocks

As we approach 2050, the aviation industry faces a significant challenge: fulfilling an anticipated fuel demand of 550 billion metric tons, primarily through SAFs. This immense need places a spotlight on the critical role of feedstock evaluation in the development and deployment of SAFs. To meet this demand, it’s essential to examine the potential and constraints of various feedstocks, considering factors like resource availability, lifecycle emissions, market dynamics, and logistical barriers.

Some feedstocks, while sustainable, may have limited scalability. For instance, used cooking oil, though a green option, is available in finite quantities and may serve as a transitional feedstock until more scalable alternatives like agricultural residues or algae become feasible. Key questions to address include:

• the required land for cultivation
• the volume availability for waste-derived feedstocks
• the lifecycle emissions of each feedstock type

Land-Use and Feedstock Yield

Land-use efficiency is a critical factor in selecting SAF feedstocks. The land footprint necessary for cultivating specific feedstocks can significantly influence their sustainability and viability. By assessing the land requirements and comparing them with the yield of various feedstocks, we gain valuable insights into the most suitable options for large-scale SAF production.

This analysis will delve into the comparative yields of different feedstocks, relating them to the resultant SAF output. This will help us evaluate the practicality of dedicating land resources to particular feedstock types and understand the trade-offs involved in choosing one over the other.

The goal is to identify feedstocks that not only meet the sustainability criteria but also align with the logistical and economic feasibility of large-scale SAF production. This comprehensive approach will provide a clearer picture of the feedstock landscape, guiding strategic decisions for SAF implementation toward 2050.

Context and Framework

Our analysis revolves around the ambitious yet increasingly embraced goal of transitioning 100% of jet fuel to SAFs by the year 2050. This vision, currently championed by the USA, sets a compelling and challenging benchmark for understanding the scale of efforts required in sourcing feedstocks for SAF production [50]. Additionally, for synthetic SAFs, we are considering a scenario where they constitute 35% of all jet fuel by 2050, a figure that aligns with evolving European mandates and industry trends*.

“The land footprint necessary for cultivating specific feedstocks can significantly influence their sustainability and viability. “

Key Assumptions:

• Total SAF Demand in 2050 (Worldwide):  We assume that the worldwide demand for SAFs will reach 550 million metric tons by 2050. This projection is rooted in the anticipated growth of the aviation sector and its fuel needs, coupled with the industry’s intention to transitioning towards sustainable fuel options.
• Total SAF Demand in 2050 (U.S.): Specifically for the U.S., we project the SAF demand to be around 100 million metric tons by 2050. This figure is based on current trends in aviation fuel consumption in the U.S. and the nation’s aggressive targets for SAF adoption.
• Proportion of Synthetic SAFs in 2050 (Worldwide): For synthetic SAFs, a subset of the broader SAF category, we project they will make up about 35% of all jet fuel by 2050. This assumption is based on the current trajectory of synthetic fuel development and its integration into the aviation fuel mix.
• Proportion of Synthetic SAFs in 2050 (U.S.): Similarly, in the U.S., we anticipate that 35% of jet fuel will be derived from synthetic SAFs by 2050. This aligns with the current policy landscape and technological advancements in SAF production.

By 2050, worldwide demandfor SAFs will reach 550 million metric tons

Purpose and Scope

The purpose of these assumptions is to provide a structured and realistic framework for our analysis of SAF feedstocks. By setting these parameters, we aim to explore the various feedstocks’ attributes, potential, and challenges in meeting the envisioned SAF demands. This analysis will cover:

• the viability and sustainability of different feedstocks
• the land-use implications and efficiency of each feedstock type
• the technological and logistical challenges associated with scaling up production to meet the 2050 targets

Through this structured approach, we aim to offer insights into the feasibility, challenges, and strategic directions necessary for achieving a significant shift towards sustainable aviation by 2050.

Land Use Analysis for SAF Feedstocks

The transition to SAFs presents the intricate task of aligning fuel production with land use, a pivotal element for feasibility. This analysis examines the land use needs for an array of SAF feedstocks, using the expanse of the United States as a reference point for fuel requirements and land mass. It also acknowledges that, despite using the U.S. as a backdrop for scale, oil palm cultivation on a significant scale is unlikely due to climatic constraints, but serves as a metric for comparison. The analysis sheds light on the varied land requirements and the limitations associated with different feedstocks. 

The intricate balance of land use and fuel production is vividly illustrated in the analysis of SAF feedstock options. The table here provides a stark representation of the varying degrees of land use requirements for different feedstocks, highlighting the vast disparities in the acreage needed to meet the SAF production goals.

The stark differences in land requirements for various SAF feedstocks emphasize the need for careful selection and strategic planning in SAF production. Feedstocks like soybean oil, despite their availability, may pose practical challenges due to their extensive land-use demands. On the other hand, algae emerges as a highly efficient option but is contingent on technological advancements for large-scale application. Forest residues represent a sustainable choice, leveraging non-agricultural sources and reducing competition with food crops. Success in SAF production hinges on choosing a feedstock that is both plentiful and cost-effective.

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Insight: Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and Alberta as Next Generation Energy Hubs

Canada, with its vast landmass and relatively small population, presents an unparalleled opportunity as a significant supplier of feedstock, crucial for the production of SAFs

Despite a considerable portion of its territory being climatically unsuitable for agriculture, Canada boasts a remarkable ratio of arable land to population density, particularly in the provinces of Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and Alberta. This positions it not just as a self-sufficient SAF provider but also as a potential net exporter in the global market.

A key factor in SAF supply chain economics is the feasibility of transportation. While transporting fuel over long distances is cost-effective, the same cannot be said for feedstock. The raw, unprocessed nature of feedstock, coupled with its bulk and weight, makes long-distance transportation economically unviable. Hence, the availability of local feedstock becomes a critical element in the sustainable production of SAFs.

To put this into perspective, consider Canada’s total land area, which stands at approximately 2.467 billion acres [52]. Of this vast expanse, around 153.6 million acres are dedicated to farmland, according to the latest Census of Agriculture [2]. This means that approximately 6.2% of Canada’s total land area is arable and most of that is actively used for agricultural purposes. In contrast, the United States, with a total land area of 2.43 billion acres, dedicates about 805 million acres to farmland, constituting roughly 33.1% of its total land area for agriculture [53] [54].

When we break down these numbers per capita, the agricultural land available per person in Canada is significantly higher than that in the United States. Canada’s population of 38 million people equates to roughly 4.04 acres of farmland per person. In comparison, the United States, with a population of 332 million, has about 2.43 acres of farmland per person. This means Canada has nearly 1.66 times more farmland available per person than the USA.

Focusing on the provinces of Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba, these regions are pivotal in Canada’s agricultural landscape. Among them, Saskatchewan leads with 60 million acres of farmland, followed by Alberta with 49 million acres, and Manitoba with 17 million acres [2] [55]. Collectively, these three provinces account for approximately 126 million acres of farmland, representing about 82% of Canada’s total farmland. This concentration highlights the immense potential of these provinces as hubs for SAF feedstock supply.

Such an abundance of agricultural land per capita emphasizes Canada’s potential in leading the way for SAF production, particularly in the provinces of Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and Alberta. These regions, rich in farmland and innovative agricultural practices, are poised to become the next generation energy hubs.

 

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INSIGHT: Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and Alberta as Next Generation Energy Hubs

Canada, with its vast landmass and relatively small population, presents an unparalleled opportunity as a significant supplier of feedstock, crucial for the production of SAFs

Despite a considerable portion of its territory being climatically unsuitable for agriculture, Canada boasts a remarkable ratio of arable land to population density, particularly in the provinces of Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and Alberta. This positions it not just as a self-sufficient SAF provider but also as a potential net exporter in the global market.

A key factor in SAF supply chain economics is the feasibility of transportation. While transporting fuel over long distances is cost-effective, the same cannot be said for feedstock. The raw, unprocessed nature of feedstock, coupled with its bulk and weight, makes long-distance transportation economically unviable. Hence, the availability of local feedstock becomes a critical element in the sustainable production of SAFs.

To put this into perspective, consider Canada’s total land area, which stands at approximately 2.467 billion acres [52]. Of this vast expanse, around 153.6 million acres are dedicated to farmland, according to the latest Census of Agriculture [2]. This means that approximately 6.2% of Canada’s total land area is arable and most of that is actively used for agricultural purposes. In contrast, the United States, with a total land area of 2.43 billion acres, dedicates about 805 million acres to farmland, constituting roughly 33.1% of its total land area for agriculture [53] [54].

When we break down these numbers per capita, the agricultural land available per person in Canada is significantly higher than that in the United States. Canada’s population of 38 million people equates to roughly 4.04 acres of farmland per person. In comparison, the United States, with a population of 332 million, has about 2.43 acres of farmland per person. This means Canada has nearly 1.66 times more farmland available per person than the USA.

Focusing on the provinces of Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba, these regions are pivotal in Canada’s agricultural landscape. Among them, Saskatchewan leads with 60 million acres of farmland, followed by Alberta with 49 million acres, and Manitoba with 17 million acres [2] [55]. Collectively, these three provinces account for approximately 126 million acres of farmland, representing about 82% of Canada’s total farmland. This concentration highlights the immense potential of these provinces as hubs for SAF feedstock supply.

Such an abundance of agricultural land per capita emphasizes Canada’s potential in leading the way for SAF production, particularly in the provinces of Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and Alberta. These regions, rich in farmland and innovative agricultural practices, are poised to become the next generation energy hubs

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Waste derived feedstock

Waste-derived feedstocks, the organic by-products of various waste streams including agricultural remnants, municipal solid waste (MSW), and industrial discards, stand at the forefront of SAF production. These materials’ transformation into SAF is pivotal, offering both environmental and economic benefits. This chapter zeroes in on the quantification of these feedstocks and evaluates their potential to meet SAF production objectives.

Municipal Solid Waste (MSW)

MSW, a diverse amalgamation of discarded items from residential, commercial, and institutional origins, encompasses organic matter, paper, plastics, and metals. Traditional disposal through landfills or incineration is giving way to innovative waste-to-energy practices, which include converting MSW into SAF. The FT process, a proven method, gasifies MSW to create syngas, subsequently catalyzed into liquid fuels.

In the U.S., the potential of MSW for SAF production is substantial, with an availability estimate of 266 million metric tons. Fulfilling the SAF production demand of 100 million metric tons would require leveraging about 82% of this MSW. However, with around 30% of MSW already recycled or repurposed, a balance must be struck. Strategic utilization of MSW for SAF is essential to ensure it contributes effectively to targets without undermining recycling initiatives.

FATs, Oils, and Greases

FOGs, derived from cooking and food processing, are rich in energy and potential for SAF production via the Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA) technology. This process hydrodeoxygenates FOGs to yield aviation-compatible hydrocarbons.

30% of MSW is already recycled

FOGs hold promise as a SAF feedstock, yet face high demand across multiple sectors, sparking fierce competition. Securing an ample supply for SAF-dedicated plants is challenging [56]. Strategies for a steady FOG supply are crucial, involving long-term agreements, infrastructure investment for collection and processing, and incentives for FOG segregation aimed at SAF production.

Ethanol and Isobutanol

Ethanol, primarily produced from food crops like corn and sugarcane, is an established biofuel with a robust supply chain. As an Alcohol-to-Jet (ATJ) feedstock, ethanol boasts a commendable SAF yield of 0.60 tons per ton. Yet, ethanol’s widespread demand across various sectors creates a competitive landscape, with 45.9 million metric tons already committed within the U.S. Diversification into SAF production using ethanol requires judicious management of its demand across industries.

The dynamics of ethanol for SAF may evolve as industry preferences shift towards alternative energies, potentially freeing up ethanol for SAF production. For now, escalating demand portends the need for alternate SAF feedstocks.

Lignocellulosic ethanol, derived from biomass such as forest and agricultural residues or energy crops like switchgrass, offers a more sustainable angle with a broadened feedstock base. The technical challenge of breaking down cellulose and lignin has impeded its commercial scale-up, but advancements are gradually unlocking its potential, evidenced by operational commercial-scale facilities.

Isobutanol, with a higher energy content yielding 0.75 tons of SAF per ton, emerges as an efficient alternative to ethanol. Its infancy in the SAF sector implies that upscaling will confront familiar challenges of feedstock sustainability, production optimization, and cost-effectiveness. Pioneering efforts in R&D are pivotal for isobutanol’s successful incorporation into the SAF supply framework.

Strategic Considerations for SAF Feedstock Development

As we journey towards 2050 and its formidable fuel demands, strategic foresight in feedstock selection becomes paramount. Policymakers and investors are tasked with a thorough land-use evaluation, weighing the logistical feasibility of each candidate. 

It is critical to identify feedstocks that not only meet current sustainability standards but also align with the logistics of global SAF production goals. A meticulous approach ensures economic and practical stewardship of resources. This groundwork is essential as we progress to analyzing the life cycle greenhouse gas emissions associated with each feedstock, adding a vital dimension to our strategic planning for SAF adoption. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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INSIGHT: Harnessing Local Algae Varieties for Sustainable Biofuel Production

Thriving in both freshwater and marine ecosystems, algae range from microscopic phytoplankton to large seaweeds. 

These organisms are remarkable for their rapid growth rates and ability to convert carbon dioxide into biomass through photosynthesis, significantly reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

To flourish, algae require basic necessities such as sunlight, water, carbon dioxide, and nutrients like nitrogen and phosphorus. An interesting aspect of algae is their resilience; they can grow in environments unsuitable for other crops, including brackish water and wastewater. This adaptability makes them a viable option for large-scale biofuel production without competing for arable land or fresh water.

The process of converting algae into biofuel is a multi-step journey. Initially, the harvested algal biomass undergoes lipid extraction, where oils (lipids) are separated from the rest of the biomass. These lipids are then transformed into biofuel through processes like transesterification, where the oils react with an alcohol (usually methanol) to form biodiesel. For SAF production, additional refining steps are integrated to meet the stringent requirements of aviation fuel standards.

With over 100,000 different strains of algae, each with unique characteristics and lipid contents, the potential for biofuel production is immense. Research efforts are crucial in identifying specific local algae strains that are not only high in lipid content but also well-suited to local environmental conditions. This approach ensures efficient cultivation and optimal oil yield, tailored to the regional climate and resources.

Exploring local algae strains for SAFs is a vital area of research. It represents an opportunity to develop region-specific algae cultivation techniques, maximizing the potential of these versatile organisms. This research not only contributes to the diversification of SAF feedstocks but also enhances local economies.

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