Sustainable Aviation Fuels:
A 30,000 Foot Perspective
Chapter 3
The Role of Sustainable Aviation Fuels
Section 3.4
Fuel Demands And SAF Mandates

Aviation fuel demand is projected to triple by 2050, underscoring the need for SAFs to meet emission reduction goals. Mandates in the U.S. and Europe aim for significant SAF adoption, with targets of 100% by 2050 in the U.S. and 63% in Europe, highlighting the crucial role of feedstock availability for SAF production.

Projected Aviation Fuel Demand

Assessing the viability of SAFs requires a deep understanding of future aviation fuel demands. This begins with projecting the sector’s fuel consumption, allowing us to align these figures with expected SAF mandates and gain insight into the necessary SAF volumes. Matching projected fuel demands with available feedstocks for SAF production will highlight the feasibility of meeting the industry’s needs.

Chart of worldwide jet fuel demand

Based on the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s International Energy Outlook 2023 [49], we anticipate a potential tripling of jet fuel demand by 2050*. This projection emphasizes the crucial role SAFs must play in aligning the aviation sector with global emission reduction objectives.

SAF Adoption Targets and Policies

Global mandates are emerging to boost SAF usage. The U.S. targets net-zero aviation emissions by 2050, proposing a 100% SAF mandate [50]. In Europe, a mandate starting at 2% SAF blending by 2025, escalating to 63% by 2050, is on the table [51]. These ambitious targets in Europe and the U.S. signal a shift toward increased SAF adoption.

The question arises: where will the required SAF volume come from? Addressing this query involves examining available feedstocks for SAF production. Assessing their availability and impact is key to determining the real benefits and viability of SAFs.

In addition to the rising demand for aviation fuel, governments around the world are also implementing mandates to increase the use of SAFs. These mandates aim to steer the aviation industry towards the exclusive use of SAFs, with the intentions of targeting zero emissions.

“The question arises:where will the required SAF volume come from? “

Chart of SAF mandate targets

*      Original data is based on jet fuel quads, which we have converted to jet fuel in metric tons based on the formula: 

        1 quad = 8.89 x 107  metric tons.

**     For 2050, the White House has set a goal of 100% SAFs. Using this, we reverse extrapolate to estimate interim targets prior to 2050. 

Growth from 2020 to 2030 is linearly projected, starting from 0.01% in 2020, reaching 0.1% in 2023, and aiming for 10% in 2030. From 2030 onwards, an exponential model targets 100% SAFs by 2050. This approach blends initial slow adoption we are seeing with increased momentum in later years.

***  Synthetic Aviation Fuel targets not stated in by US authorities.