Sustainable Aviation Fuels:
A 30,000 Foot Perspective
Chapter 2
Advancements in Aircraft Technology and Operations
Section 2.5
Timeline for Sustainable Aviation Fuel Adoption

Various Sustainable Aviation Fuel production technologies are currently in use, with even more promising ones in development. Although battery and hydrogen technologies are available, they are not yet efficient enough for widespread application in aviation.

Understanding Technology Readiness

Technology readiness refers to how close a particular technology is to being fully functional and ready for practical use. It depends on factors like how well the technology has been developed, tested, and adapted for real-world applications. This readiness level helps us understand when a technology will be ready to meet its intended goals or objectives. Technology readiness levels (TRLs) gauge a technology’s maturity from 1 (conceptual) to 9 (fully operational).

Current State of Sustainable Technologies:

SAFs: At TRL 9, SAFs are already in use in commercial flights, though they remain costlier and less abundant than conventional fuels.

Hydrogen-Powered Aircraft:  Positioned at TRL 6-7, hydrogen-powered aircraft have witnessed successful prototypes but face significant technological hurdles before reaching commercial viability.

Battery-Powered Aircraft: 

At TRL 5-6, battery-powered aircraft are being actively developed but are currently limited by range and payload.

Technology readiness refers to how close a particular technology is to being fully functional and ready for practical use.  

Chart showing technology readiness an potential for emission reduction of various SAF technologies

Projected Adoption Timeline:

2020-2030: SAFs will gain wider adoption and a continues price gap reduction from conventional jet fuel. Hydrogen and battery-powered aircraft will start servicing short-haul routes.

2030-2040:  SAFs are expected to become the primary fuel. Hydrogen and battery-powered aircraft will increase their presence in short-haul markets.

2040-2050: Hydrogen and battery-powered aircraft may extend to medium-haul routes, with sustainable aviation becoming standard practice.

This timeline is indicative and subject to factors like funding, technological breakthroughs, and policy developments. This chart is based on general assumptions about future technology advancements in SAF production and does not rely on specific data.

Focus on SAFs

SAFs stand out as the most immediately promising sustainable technology due to their readiness, compatibility with existing infrastructure, and emissions reduction potential. The report will henceforth concentrate on SAFs, exploring their aspects, benefits, and challenges in-depth, to elucidate their role in the near-future transformation of the aviation industry.